2019 So Far…. Market Report (with a difference)!!!!

Another quarter has come and gone; a tick of the second hand in your lifelong financial journey.

At this moment, we can compare and contrast the current quarter-end to recent rounds. A Wall Street Journal article summarised Q1, “Stock investors have been on a wild ride the past six or so months: The S&P 500 has gone from a record high, to being on the cusp of a bear market, to being back within striking distance of its recent peak.” GUESS WHAT?? Q2 has had a very similar feel to it with the wild ride ending with the S&P 500 hitting a new record high.

At this moment, financial headlines are closely watching what’s in store for Brexit, the shape of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, China trade talks, and other potential slowdowns and stimuli (such as tweets from Donald Trump).

At this moment, a financial commentator proposed that a new “golden cross” is supposedly signaling a bull market ahead, based on comparing the 50-day moving average to the 200-day moving average. Noting the historical data isn’t sufficient to be telling, the author admits: “The crosses derive their power not because there is something inherent but because many investors believe in them and act on them. Moreover, the media like the stories of golden crosses and death crosses, and promote them. This generates bullish or bearish sentiment.”

SERIOUSLY???

And then there’s our perspective;

As always, this sort of circular logic leads many investors astray. As you reflect on any forecasting “powers” reported in the popular press, remember the vast majority of them are premised on what may be the flimsiest platform ever devised: human sentiment.

As always, remember how easy it is to get tangled up in the ticks and tocks. There are always causes for global socioeconomic concern. There are almost always cases for optimism as well. Either way, remember these words from financial luminary William Bernstein, MD, “Investing, after all, is an operation that transfers wealth to those who have a process and can execute it from those who do not and cannot; from what I’ve seen, the average investor’s strategy consists of pride when prices rise and panic when they fall.”

As always, we encourage you to rise above the news of the day and ignore the noise. It is our special privilege to help you do just that. There will always be plenty of prognosticators, enticing you to grab at “golden” opportunities. Fortunately, there are many voices of reason among us as well.

As we reflect on what may be the most meaningful news from the past six months, we mourn the loss of one of our greatest allies on this front. Investors lost a staunch friend with the January 16th passing of John “Jack” C. Bogle, Vanguard founder and father of the first publicly traded index fund. In his honour, we recall one of his countless worthy observations: “Investing is not nearly as difficult as it looks. Successful investing involves doing a few things right and avoiding serious mistakes.”

At this moment, and as always, please let us know whenever we can help you cut through the clutter toward your clear lifestyle financial plan, your Metis LifePlan is waiting. Why not get in touch today?

Keith Matthews
Private Client Manager
kmatthews@metisireland.ie

Disclaimer

Metis Ireland Financial Planning Ltd t/a Metis Ireland is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland.

All content provided in these blog posts is intended for information purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. You should always engage the services of a fully qualified independent financial adviser before entering any financial contract. Metis Ireland Financial Planning Ltd t/a Metis Ireland will not be held responsible for any actions taken as a result of reading these blog posts.